Building & Construction
June 9, 2026
CRU revises extrusions, rolled products growth outlooks
Written by Nicholas Bell
CRU Group cut its near-term extrusion growth outlook while lowering rolled product expectations.
CRU, parent company of AMU, lowered its forecast for 2026 US semi-fabricated aluminum consumption growth in its May Casthouse Shapes Market Outlook. Its previous outlook was published Feb. 27.
Near-term revisions
Between its February and May outlooks, CRU lowered its forecast for 2026 US semi-fabricated aluminum consumption growth to 0.4% from 2.0%.
Extrusions recorded the largest reduction in expected 2026 growth among the major product categories.
In February, CRU expected US extrusion consumption to increase 3.3% in 2026. By May, that forecast had fallen to 1.6%.
CRU’s 2026 rolled product consumption slowed to 0.7% in May’s outlook, compared to projected 2.7% growth earlier in February.
The contraction in US castings consumption deepened to a 1.5% decline from a 0.8% reduction projected in February.
Wire and cable changed slightly, with expected growth easing to 2.7% from 2.8%.
Long-term revisions
CRU’s revisions to its 2025-2030 compound annual growth rate forecasts present a different picture.
The firm lowered its long-term growth forecast for total US semi-fabricated aluminum consumption to 3.1% from 3.8%.
Rolled products recorded the largest downward revision among the major product groups, with an updated 2.6% growth forecast from 3.7% in February.
Tangentially, extrusion growth dipped to 3.5% from 3.9%, while castings moved to 3.7% from 3.9%. Wire and cable growth estimates increased to 3.7% from 3.5% over the same period.
End-market forecasts explain divergence
Extrusions
The underlying end-market forecasts help explain why the largest near-term revisions occurred in extrusions while the largest long-term revision occurred in rolled products.
For North American extrusions, where US consumption represents most regional demand, several major end markets showed slower expected growth in 2026.
Construction shifted from around 1.3% growth to a slight contraction. Transportation slowed from roughly 2.6% growth to near flat year-over-year growth. Electrical applications decelerated from about 7.5% growth to about 2.4%.
Consumer durables also slowed, while machinery and equipment remained one of the stronger-performing segments for extrusion consumption.
The May outlook nevertheless continued to project growth in transportation, electrical applications, consumer durables and machinery and equipment over the longer term.
CRU’s accompanying presentation materials cited weaker light-vehicle product growth outside China, revised electric vehicle adoption assumptions and softer conditions across several consumer-oriented markets.
At the same time, the team continued to identify data center construction, electrical applications and construction activity as sources of future North American extrusion demand.
Rolled products
Although CRU reduced its long-term rolled products growth forecast, the changes varied considerably by end market.
Compared with February expectations, CRU raised its long-term forecasts for construction, electrical applications, machinery and equipment, consumer durables and other smaller segments.
However, transportation demand received a notable reduction through 2030. Can stock forecasts also moved lower. Foil stock recorded one of the largest downward revisions among the major rolled product segments.
Because transportation and can stock account for a substantial share of rolled products consumption in the US, while foil stock received one of the largest downward revisions, those changes weighed on the category’s overall long-term growth forecast despite higher expectations elsewhere.
Rolled products also recorded significant revisions in the near term, as delineated in the May Aluminum Rolled Products Market Outlook published May 28, although they were less severe than those seen in extrusions.
Transportation shifted from 0.5% growth in 2026 consumption expected in February to a 0.9% decline anticipated by May, while can stock growth slowed to 1.8% growth from 2.4% over the same period. Foil stock recorded one of the largest revisions, moving from 9.5% growth in the February outlook to a 4.0% decline in the May forecast.
Construction and consumer durables also received lower growth expectations. Meanwhile, machinery and equipment moved higher and electrical applications remained largely unchanged.
