Consumer Durables
December 9, 2025
Focus on demand: Recreational vehicles as a bellwether for consumer spending
Written by Greg Wittbecker
Although not large by overall industry metrics, the recreational vehicle (RV) market is a barometer of consumer sentiment for discretional durable goods. The RV sector also has critical importance to regional extruders in the Indiana-Michigan-Ohio area and California.
Historically, shipments of aluminum extruded products represent about 1%-1.5% of total industry shipments and about 4.75%-5% of shipments to the transportation sector, according to the Aluminum Association. That translates to about 35 million-40 million pounds/year.
The Recreational Vehicle Industry Association, the Virginia-based nonprofit for RV producers, reports on three classes of production:
Towables: Conventional travel trailers pulled by cars or light trucks (such as Jayco, Winnebago); fifth wheel trailers; pop-up camping trailers and truck campers that are mounted on truck beds.
Motorhomes: Self-propelled conventional coaches (Winnebago); van campers (like the Mercedes Sprinter) and mini campers.
Park Model: An RV built on a single chassis of 32-40 foot designed for semi-permanent placement as temporary housing or vacation homes. They are typically towed into place by a commercial vehicle; leading manufacturers are Champion Homes and CAVCO; overlaps to some degree with manufactured housing. (It should be noted that the RVIA does not treat park models as an “RV” per se.)
These classes each have unique price points and target markets. Towables are for entry-level to mid-market consumers looking for product for use on short-duration travel. Typically starting at $20,000 and up to $100,000. Motorhomes are a substantial investment ranging from $50,000 to over $600,000. Park models range from $50,000 to over $100,000, aiming toward second home buyers or retirees living as “snowbirds” in the US Sun Belt.
RVIA wholesale shipments for October
RVIA reported wholesale shipments of all towables at 27,055 units in October, a drop of 2.6% year on year. But year-to-date shipments stand at 266,690 units, which are up 3.7%.
Within the sub-categories of towables, the numbers shook out as follows in October:
- Travel trailers: 20,222, down -9%; 203,425 year to date, down 0.5%
- Fifth wheel: 6,198 up 24.9%; 56,449 units year to date, up 21.2%
- Pop-up trailers: 267, down 15.8%; 3,275 year to date, down 2.8%
- Truck Campers: 368, up 34.8%; 3,531 units year to date, up 26.7%
Motorhomes saw October shipments up 12.7% at 3,188 units, bringing year-to-date shipments to 30,787 units or 3.5% higher.
Park home shipments were 443 units in October, rising 28% year on year and up 8.9% year to date on shipments of 3,635 units.
Total RV shipments for the year are up 3.6% at 297,477 units versus 287,007 units last year to date (bearing in mind that park models are not included).
Outlook
RVIA estimates that 2025 wholesale shipments should finish between 334,000 and 345,400 units. In 2026, shipments are expected to range between 332,100 to 366,000 units with a median of 349,300 units in 2026, a 2.8% rise over the expected 2025 year-end total.
Why this matters
The RV sector remains a source of concentrated demand for those extruders in northern Indiana, southern Michigan, Ohio, and southern California. As demand ebbs and flows, capacity serving this sector may or may not spill over to other markets and impact pricing in building and construction.
Equally important, wholesale shipments offer us some insight into the mindset of consumers across multiple income groups with differing discretionary income. The towable market tells us a lot about the working age middle- and upper-middle-class willingness to spend. Motorhomes tend to signal more about higher income working or retirees’ willingness to spend bigger dollars. Park models are a proxy for retiree movement.
Aside from price point differentials, towables and motorhomes do share some characteristics. Both classes are interest rate sensitive, motorhomes perhaps more so due to their higher cost. Gasoline and diesel prices may also influence consumers’ willingness to splurge on one of these products. If fuel costs are rising, consumers may be reluctant to buy. Conversely, if fuel is coming down, it may increase demand.
While RV demand may not seem like a large enough market to influence LME or Midwest, it may be an early signal of consumer behavior which eventually washes over the entire market.
