Category: Trade Policy and Tariffs

January's AMU survey shows stabilizing lead times with growing product-level and role-based divergence, alongside a notable shift in perceptions of import competitiveness.

AMU contributors Greg Wittbecker and Edward Meir spoke on a wide range of topics during a Community Chat on Thursday, Jan. 22.

“There's absolutely no doubt that aluminum will be a growth platform for us going forward,” said Mark Millett, co-founder, chairman & CEO of the Indiana-based steelmaker.

A weekly review of global political developments, market volatility and key macroeconomic data shaping equities, commodities, energy and trade heading into the week of Jan. 26.

Alcoa's full-year 2025 results show higher aluminum production yet lower shipments as the company outlines its 2026 outlook and capital posture.

The move comes as pressure is increasing to keep scrap at home but US tariff exemptions have made exports more appealing.

Rising global capital and power costs, driven by China's production cap and higher-cost expansion in Indonesia, are structurally resetting aluminum's incentive price, making higher LME levels necessary to unlock new primary capacity outside China.

China's expanding trade surplus reflects a strategic rotation away from US markets and toward higher-value exports, even as domestic demand remains under pressure.

Trade deals, substitution, and the Midwest premium in the year ahead

The US has seen a drastic decline in imports from Canada.