Category: Trade Policy and Tariffs

“There's absolutely no doubt that aluminum will be a growth platform for us going forward,” said Mark Millett, co-founder, chairman & CEO of the Indiana-based steelmaker.

A weekly review of global political developments, market volatility and key macroeconomic data shaping equities, commodities, energy and trade heading into the week of Jan. 26.

Alcoa's full-year 2025 results show higher aluminum production yet lower shipments as the company outlines its 2026 outlook and capital posture.

The move comes as pressure is increasing to keep scrap at home but US tariff exemptions have made exports more appealing.

Rising global capital and power costs, driven by China's production cap and higher-cost expansion in Indonesia, are structurally resetting aluminum's incentive price, making higher LME levels necessary to unlock new primary capacity outside China.

China's expanding trade surplus reflects a strategic rotation away from US markets and toward higher-value exports, even as domestic demand remains under pressure.

Trade deals, substitution, and the Midwest premium in the year ahead

The US has seen a drastic decline in imports from Canada.

How Venezuela figures into the aluminum sector

There are some tactical resolutions in this list that are essential for the companies involved to achieve their financial results for 2026. Some are aspirational and may take more than 2026 to happen.