Global Trade
28 February 2025
Week in Review: Market shifts and high stakes moves
Written by Gabriella Vagnini
Tariffs and trade
- Trump confirmed 25% tariffs on Canada & Mexico, additional 10% on China, effective March 4.
- March 12: Section 232 tariffs still in play.
- April 1: Possible reciprocal tariffs from trading partners.
- Ford CEO: 25% tariff on Canada/Mexico would “blow a hole” in the U.S. auto industry (DFP).
- If Canada tariffs stack (25%+25%), Midwest premiums could spike 70% per pound.
- Importers rushing shipments ahead of tariffs to avoid extra costs.
Aluminum market
- Midwest Premium surged by almost 20 cents this month.
- Domestic mills hiking prices by $.15-$.20/lb immediately.
- LME aluminum volatile but steady overall.
- LME inventories down 14,700mt, major cancellations in Port Klang.
- Chinese stocks up 26,900mt this week, but slower growth vs. last week.
- Depot inventories getting pulled rapidly as buyers brace for price spikes.
Supply chain and raw materials
- Magnesium: No 25% surcharge yet but the market is watching it closely.
- Scrap supply remains tight, keeping secondary aluminum prices firm.
- Fabricators & service centers seeing extended lead times as demand shifts.
Industry and policy
- The Aluminum Association met with White House & Congress to discuss tariffs.
- “As American As” campaign continues, pushing aluminum’s role in U.S. manufacturing.
- SAFE Foundation: Energy costs, not just tariffs, are the bigger issue for long-term competitiveness.
- EU facing similar trade pressures, balancing CBAM, tariffs, and energy costs.
U.S.- Ukraine confrontation and Russia looming in the background
- Trump met with Zelensky in the White House Oval Office. The meeting did not go as planned. Trump trying to engage peace talks and do a rare earth minerals (REM) deal.
- To sum it up, Trump said: “He disrespected the United States in its cherished Oval Office” and then he had Zelenskyy removed from the White House.
- Nothing was agreed on the rare-earth minerals deal between the U.S. and Ukraine.
- Zelenskyy canceled his planned speech at the Hudson Institute after the meeting fallout.
- Russia has offered the U.S. a minerals deal for resources in Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory, which Trump has shown interest in.
- U.S.-Russia peace talks were held in Saudi Arabia this month, marking the first official U.S.-Russia negotiations of Trump’s presidency.
- Zelenskyy rejected the initial U.S. rare-earth minerals deal, saying it lacked security guarantees.
Earnings and corporate updates
- CBA (Brazil): Adjusted EBITDA up 377% YoY despite 2% drop in sales.
- Ardagh Metal Packaging: Strong Europe performance, U.S. shipments down 5% YoY.
- Befesa (secondary aluminum): Record €62M Q4 EBITDA.
- Press Metal (Malaysia): Bauxite supply & alumina price risks remain.
- Rusal (Russia): Plans to extract scandium from red mud, shifting rare earths market.
- Scandium makes aluminum stronger, more corrosion-resistant, and easier to weld.
- Even a tiny amount drastically improves aluminum’s performance.
- It’s key for aerospace, defense, EV’s and other lightweight, high strength applications.
What’s Next?
- March 4: First wave of tariffs takes effect.
- March 12: Section 232 tariffs – watch for potential adjustments.
- April 1: Possible reciprocal tariffs from trading partners.
- April 2: Possible tariff of 25% to start on imported autos, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors.
- Auto industry reaction: Next earnings calls could show real impact.
- LME & SHFE trends: Watching for sharp price moves based on supply shifts.
