Global Trade
7 July 2025
AMU Survey: Tariffs cast a shadow on the market
Written by Stephanie Ritenbaugh
Demand is holding steady, but on-again, off-again tariffs continue to sow uncertainty in the aluminum market, according to AMU’s monthly market survey.
Aluminum Market Update’s exclusive survey of the aluminum industry collects the latest thoughts on market outlook, supply chains, logistics, and scrap. The monthly survey is invitation only, ensuring high-quality responses from industry professionals. All data is kept confidential.
Here are some highlights from the month of June. The full results are available to subscribers here. (Editor’s note: The numbers in the slides below refer to which page they’re on in the deck with the full results.)
Demand
When it comes to both overall and domestic demand, a solid majority describe the market as keeping an even keel.
As AMU noted last month, that could indicate that people are playing it safe, staying flexible because the rules keep changing.
Here’s what a few respondents had to say:
“Tariffs are creating too much confusion for any significant plans.”
“Automotive is a mixed bag, but overall steady.”
“Summer slowdown.”
Supply
As for whether new U.S. supply (primary/semi) is keeping up with demand, the responses were nearly evenly split.
“Imports are still required to support demand for primary aluminum.”
“I have heard of no shortfalls…”
“No. Primary aluminum market is not attractive in the US as the premium does not cover the cost of tariffs.”
Shipments
In response to the question, “What’s holding up aluminum shipments or flows right now?”, most responded with the word of the year: Tariffs.
In fact, several responded with just that single word.
Others elaborated a little more:
“Primary aluminum cost increases due to tariffs have tightened supply of secondary aluminum. Primary costs had been soft enough to be an alternative to secondary but no more.”
“Transplant auto demand has been the bright spot.”
“Uncertainty in the markets.”
If you are interested in having your experience reflected in this survey, please reach out. We encourage those out there in the trenches to participate. All data is confidential. You can contact nicholas.bell@crugroup.com to find out more.
