North America rail freight shipments: Gauging industrial demand

AAR numbers are becoming increasingly useful for tracking inbound container freight from Asia, as intermodal movements are reported monthly.

For seasonal context as the calendar turns toward the coming month, AAR’s most recent February reporting period (February 2025) is instructive. Intermodal shipments rose 6.4% year over year to 66,340 units, while container volumes increased 9.3%. That period coincided with significant front-end loading of imports following announced tariff increases implemented in March 2025, elevating the comparison base. As a result, year-over-year increase in February volumes this year would build on that earlier surge, while any moderation should be assessed against an already elevated baseline.

In the meantime, weekly shipment data provide a more immediate view of current conditions, beginning with the week ending Jan. 17.

Carload shipments by leading commodities

North American railroads – Commodity week ending Jan. 17; year-to-date; year-to-date change

• Total carloads: 327,894 | 661,606 | +6.7%
• Trailers/containers: 367,278 | 730,050 | +2.5%
• Chemicals: 71,371 | 97,126 | +20.3%
  • Of which petroleum products: 22,351 | 21,879 | +2.8%
• Grain: 40,088 | 80,816 | +20.3%
• Coal: 66,134 | 139,714 | +9.3%
• Metal ores and metals: 38,617 | 76,347 | +2.4%
  • Of which iron and steel scrap: 7,220 | 13,634 | +26.6%
• Forest products: 13,817 | 27,591 | -8.0%
  • Of which lumber: 5,125 | 10,214 | -10.7%
• Nonmetallic minerals: 38,575 | 77,282 | +17.2%
• Non-grain farm products: 27,053 | 25,775 | -4.6%
• Motor vehicles: 20,345 | 36,595 | -2.8%

Canadian railroads: Key takeaways

• Shipments of primary metal products are down 21.2% year to date, with the trailing four-week average down 20.1%.
• Motor vehicle shipments are down 28.1% year to date and down 21.6% on a trailing four-week basis.
• Iron and steel scrap shipments are down 1.2% year to date but up 16.3% for the trailing four-week average.
• Lumber shipments are down 17.1% year to date and down 13.7% over the trailing four weeks.
• Grain shipments are up 13.4% year to date and up 16% over the trailing four-week average.

What the numbers suggest so far in 2026

Overall freight volumes across North America are off to a solid start, though growth is being driven primarily by bulk commodities.

Positive indicators

• Grain shipments are benefiting from seasonal export demand, supported by higher Chinese purchases of US soybeans and Canadian wheat and canola.
• Coal volumes are peaking amid winter heating demand.
• Nonmetallic minerals, including crushed stone, sand and gravel, are up 21%, potentially signaling rising cement demand tied to basic infrastructure activity. As discussed previously in the context of “looking for demand in all the wrong places,” cement can act as an early indicator of broader construction momentum, supporting steel initially and aluminum later.
• Iron and steel scrap shipments are rising sharply, pointing to strong demand pull from electric arc furnace (EAF) mini-mills.

Negative indicators

• Primary metal shipments remain weak, largely due to sharp declines from Canadian carriers. This suggests Section 232 tariffs continue to inhibit exports despite Midwest premiums fully covering tariffs costs.
• Lumber shipments are soft, indicating continued weakness in new single-family housing starts. Canadian softwood shipments to the US remain under significant pressure.
• Motor vehicle shipments declined, diverging from December sales performance that pushed the seasonally adjusted annual rate to 16.3 million units, a six-year high. This likely reflects OEMs and dealers drawing down inventories rather than replenishing them, with inventories reported down 8% month over month in December.

Why it matters

Within this framework, primary metals, scrap, forest products and motor vehicle shipments remain key demand signals to monitor.

With Midwest premiums near $1.00 per pound over LME, buyers are increasingly focused on new supply from Canada and seaborne origins. Canadian shipment trends over the next one to two months will be critical in determining whether supply flows accelerate enough to relieve upward pressure on the Midwest premium.

Scrap movement will offer insight into operating conditions at EAF mini-mills.

Improvement in forest product shipments would help confirm a recovery in housing activity.

Stronger motor vehicle shipments would suggest OEM confidence that December’s year-end strength can extend into 2026, potentially prompting inventory rebuilding.