Chinese can sheet regains US share

Historically, China was a major supplier of beverage can sheet to the US market, but its presence had diminished in recent years as other foreign sources, particularly South Korea, and expanding domestic capacity gained ground. The latest trade data suggests that trend has reversed, with Chinese imports surging over the past five months and reclaiming a larger share of total imports.

The increase occurred while total imports also expanded. US beverage can sheet imports reached around 52,400 metric tons in May 2026, the highest monthly total in the available data. January through May averaged roughly 44,100 metric tons per month, well above the 25,100-ton average during the same period in 2025.

Rather than just capturing share from other foreign suppliers, Chinese material gained volume in an expanding market as well.

The increase occurred despite several market developments that, on paper, would normally be expected to work against a rise in Chinese imports.

Market developments

The tariff environment also became progressively more restrictive as Section 232 tariffs on aluminum imports increased to 25% in March 2025 and then to 50% beginning June 2025. Originally, the duty applied only to the declared value of the aluminum content but has since expanded to apply to the full value of covered goods.

Separate from those measures, Section 301 tariffs have applied to Chinese-origin aluminum imports since 2018, while duty investigations on other countries remain under investigation. Section 301 duties and stack on top of Section 232 tariffs, meaning they are cumulatively applied to a single product.

Following a mandatory review by the Office of the United States Trade Representative, the Section 301 tariff rate on affected aluminum products increased to 25% in September 2024.

Beverage can sheet imports from China had mostly dropped off from prior-year levels before both those tariff increases through 2023 and 2024. Neither of these developments would ordinarily improve the economics of importing can sheet into the US.

Pricing environment

CRU Group’s Aluminum Rolled Products Market Outlook, published May 27, showed Chinese beverage can sheet conversion fees over the Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum index increased by roughly 5.5% on average during the first four months of 2026 compared with the same period of 2025.

Simultaneously, the renminbi strengthened modestly against the dollar, which would theoretically make imports more expensive in dollar terms.

Meanwhile, the Midwest transaction price, which combines the London Metal Exchange cash settlement and Midwest premium, increased as both components rose sharply throughout 2026.

Because beverage can sheet pricing typically builds from that baseline before additional product premiums are applied, the higher Midwest transaction price increased the domestic reference point for can sheet transactions.

Imports persist despite capacity growth

Even as Steel Dynamics continues ramping production at its 650,000-metric-ton-per-year Aluminum Dynamics mill in Columbus, Miss., where can sheet is expected to account for 45% of output, and Novelis advances commissioning of its 600,000-metric-ton-per-year mill in Bay Minette, Ala., where beverage can sheet is expected to comprise 62% of production, domestic additions have yet to displace imported material.

Beverage can sheet imports could decline if Novelis relies less on its South Korean operations to supplement US supply as Bay Minette comes online later this year and into 2027. However, that explanation does not account for the recent increase in Chinese imports.

Korea remained the largest supplier through 2026, though preliminary data showed China supplying more than 23,500 metric tons in May alone so far, exceeding South Korean imports just under 21,000 metric tons during the same period.

Still, for context, if both Aluminum Dynamics’ Columbus, Miss., mill and Novelis’ Bay Minette, Ala., mill operated at their stated annual capacities and produced their planned beverage can sheet mix, they would add roughly 55,4000 metric tons of domestic beverage can sheet output per month. That figure exceeds the roughly 52,400 metric tons of beverage can sheet imported through most of May by less than 3,000 metric tons.

That said, this comparison comes with several qualifications.

May 2026 imports were unusually high relative to monthly volumes seen during most of the past several years, meaning the gap would appear substantially wider using historical import averages. That said, mills also rarely operate at full nameplate capacity.

Product mix also remains an important variable as both facilities plan to produce auto body sheet alongside beverage can sheet. Auto body sheet remains relatively tight in the US market, and automakers have discussed reducing reliance on individual mill locations following supply disruptions in the last year.

If either producer directs a larger share of output toward higher-margin automotive applications than originally anticipated, the amount of beverage can sheet available to offset imports could fall below current product mix assumptions.

China’s rise extends beyond Gulf disruption

Some market participants may view China’s increase through the lens of the conflict involving Iran and the resulting disruption to shipping route near the Strait of Hormuz.

Saudi Arabia, or effectively Ma’aden Rolling Company, remains an established supplier of beverage can sheet to the US market, but the trade data provides limited support for the argument that Chinese shipments have simply replaced lost Saudi volumes.

Saudi Arabian imports declined during the first four months of 2026 and most of May compared with the unusually strong levels recorded during portions of early 2025. However, imports from Saudi Arabia remained above year-earlier levels in April and May-to-date 2026, the period coinciding with the conflict in the Middle East.

More importantly, the increase in Chinese shipments substantially surpassed the reduction in Saudi Arabian volumes.

Looking ahead

The import volumes from China are most significant when viewed against the country’s beverage can sheet rather than its overall aluminum sector.

Beverage can sheet represents a smaller portion of China’s much larger aluminum products market. According to CRU estimates, the three largest Chinese beverage can sheet producers accounted for roughly two-thirds of the country’s output in 2025, while six additional producers accounted for most of the remaining production.

Based on CRU’s annual production estimates, the combined monthly output of those three largest producers would place May’s US imports from China at roughly 43% of their production on an equivalent monthly basis.

Again, May imports were unusually high relative to recent years and the trade data does not identify individual supplying mills. Even so, the data indicates that the US market absorbed a meaningful volume relative to the scale of China’s beverage can sheet sector.

Unlike South Korean imports, which largely overlap with Novelis’ footprint in the country and could decline as the company’s Bay Minette, Ala., mill ramps up production, Chinese shipments do not appear tied to the same captive supply relationship.

Aside from Nanshan’s US operation in Lafayette, Ind., which isn’t geared towards flat rolled products, there is limited overlap between major US beverage can sheet producers and Chinese beverage can sheet mills.

If Chinese beverage can sheet can regain share under tariffs, elevated logistics costs, rising conversion fees and higher domestic pricing, it may prove more durable source than many expected, even as new domestic capacity comes online.