IAI April aluminum output falls as GCC declines outweigh gradual Western restarts

Meanwhile, China output partially offset the decline with production increasing by an estimated 54,000 metric tons year over year, while Europe, including Russia, increased by roughly 26,000 metric tons and Asia excluding China rose by about 10,000 metric tons.

Beyond seasonality

In recent years, global primary aluminum production has typically declined from March to April, though the 2026 decline exceeded the seasonal pattern seen during the prior two years.

Global output fell to 2.922 million metric tons in April from 6.254 million metric tons in March. By comparison, global production declined by roughly 190,000 tons between March and April in both 2024 and 2025.

Three months into the Iran war, every major reporting region still produced less aluminum in April than in March despite aluminum prices increasing and London Metal Exchange on-warrant inventories remaining near multi-year lows.

Excluding China, where much of the market remains domestically oriented, other producing regions had not yet broadly increased near-term output despite tighter physical supply conditions and growing demand for alternative sourcing.

Gulf production

The Gulf region plays an outsized role in the seaborne aluminum market because much of its production enters export channels serving Europe, Asia and North America.

April production among GCC countries fell 35% year over year to 330,000 metric tons from 505,000 metric tons in the previous year period. The April figure also declined 29% from March with output of 465,000 metric tons.

From March to April alone, GCC production decreased by around 135,000 metric tons, compared with just an 18,000 metric ton decline during the same period in 2025.

Europe and North America log modest gains

Europe, including Russia, recorded a 4% year-over-year increase in April after a 5% increase in March. Regional production increased 26,000 metric tons year over year in April to 604,000 metric tons for the month.

The gains followed several capacity additions and smelter restarts that have gradually entered the market since April 2025.

Still, there are regional differences within that production base. Before the IAI merged the categories in 2024, Eastern Europe and Russia accounted for the larger share of production, while Western Europe was comparatively lower.

North American production remained comparatively stable, declining roughly 4,000 metric tons year over year in April. Regional output fell 1% year over year in both March and April.

Century Aluminum has continued gradually ramping idled capacity at Mt. Holly in South Carolina, though the restart has entered the market slowly and has not materially shifted regional production totals.

China’s production ceiling

China continued operating near its national primary aluminum production cap of 45 million metric tons per year. Following an estimated 3.678 million metric tons of output in April, January through April production totaled roughly 14.68 million metric tons, leaving about 30.32 million metric tons of remaining capacity for the balance of 2026.

Based on April’s production rate, that would leave around 112,000 metric tons per month of additional headroom under the annual production cap throughout the rest of the year.

China accounted for about 62% of global primary aluminum production during April, which continued muting the scale of global declines elsewhere. Excluding China, year-over-year global primary aluminum production dropped 7.5% in April from the prior year. Including China reduced the global decline to about 2.1%.

Meanwhile, removing both China and GCC countries from the figures left year-over-year primary aluminum production nearly flat, declining only about 0.3%.

Even so, those remaining regions — Europe including Russia, North America, South America, Asia excluding China, Oceania, and IAI estimates of unreported figures — accounted for only about 32% of total global primary aluminum production when China and GCC countries were included.