Export Growth
September 8, 2026
AMU Summit: China nears production cap, but increases can still happen
Written by Stephanie Ritenbaugh
China is bumping up against its official primary production capacity limit of 45.3 million metric tons/year, but production can still increase through “capacity creep.”
Zaid Aljanabi, head of aluminum products at CRU Group, said operational and efficiency gains within existing potlines could add more than 200,000 mt this year without a formal capacity expansion.
China’s production expansion, combined with other factors such as recovery among Gulf Cooperation Countries and softening demand could bring aluminum prices down in 2027, he said.
Aljanabi made the comments during a panel session at AMU Summit 2026 in August.
In addition, China has continued its investments in Indonesia and Angola, as well as a project in Saudi Arabia.
One such project is Huatong Angola Industry’s smelter project running at 120,000 t/y. The Angola plant recently started construction for a second 120,000 t/y smelting project, which is expected to come online in the second half of 2026, according to CRU data.
In Indonesia, about 2.1 million t/y of capacity is estimated to be under construction across at least five locations. “The vast majority of that will be destined for the Chinese market,” Aljanabi said.
In terms of exports, China remains strong, expanding by 1.9% year on year, primarily in the form of wheels and stranded wire.
That said, CRU said Chinese growth in output could weaken prices in 2027.
Timna Tanners, managing director, Wells Fargo, said that while there’s debate on whether China adheres to its stated production cap, “China does care about building data centers.”
“If China wants to be converting their electric use for data centers, then maybe some of these inefficient aluminum plants will be retired. I think that’s a bull case worth mentioning.”
